India is in favourable position to attract foreign firms planning to relocate their manufacturing bases due to trade tension between the US and China, says Nomura.
Calibrated reopening of the economy by states as the number of fresh COVID-19 cases subside increased mobility and aided in a fast-paced increase in an index of business resumption last week, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index rebounded to 76 for the week ended June 13, up from the preceding week's 67.9, a note from the brokerage said. The pre-pandemic value of the index is set at 100.
State Bank of India's earnings growth may turn lacklustre in the near-term, warn analysts. This, they said, could be due to margin compression and likely lower fee income over the next one year. "While the cost of deposits is repricing sharply across the system, there will be relatively lower yield expansion going ahead as most of the back-book has been repriced and there is a high competitive pressure on yields.
Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
The stock of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has been touching successive all-time highs on the bourses and, over the past year, gained 81 per cent. While the S&P BSE Auto Index has not performed poorly, registering gains of 73 per cent, it still trails the company by 800 basis points (bps) during this period. There are multiple reasons why investors are beating a path to M&M's counter.
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
After a stellar November that saw companies mop up over Rs 36,000 crore from the primary market via initial public offers (IPOs) and offers for sale (OFS), the current month, analysts said, will test investor's willingness to stay on with their investments as the one-month mandatory lock-in period for anchor investors begins to loosen. A note by Edelweiss Alternative Research suggests that in calendar year 2021 (CY21), 51 companies went public. Of these, 41 issuances' anchor selling dates are already over.
India's top technology companies will witness a tepid revenue expansion in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24) - along expected lines - on the back of furloughs and no blockbuster deals, even as the momentum gained from Generative AI (GenAI) is likely to take centre stage. IT services and consulting firm Accenture's first quarter numbers in FY24 showed a significant pick up in GenAI spending. It signed new bookings to the tune of $450 million in this space, a surge from the $300 million signed in the whole of FY23.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
Amid news of a fuel shortage in some parts of the country and wider unrest over fuel issues in the neighbourhood, an analysis of the data from international tracker globalpetrolprices.com shows that the per litre price of petrol is higher in India than in seven out of its nine neighbours.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Investors seem to be shying away from stocks of companies in the 'digital' space with most counters that comprise the Nifty India Digital index giving negative returns over the past year. The index tracks the performance of a portfolio of stocks that broadly represent the 'digital theme' within basic industries, such as software, e-commerce, IT-enabled services, industrial electronics, and telecom services. The fall in some of these stocks over the past year has been steep; the sharpest decline of around 60 per cent was seen in shares of PB Fintech (parent company of Policybazaar).
With the Big Four information technology services players having disappointed the Street, the focus is on mid-cap IT players who seem to have met expectations, according to analyst reports and management commentary on the demand environment.
At a time when the market is betting on a 'higher for longer' global interest rate view, Accenture's (ACN) weak revenue forecast is a negative read-through for the Indian IT firms, according to analysts. The Dublin-based company sees its revenue growth at 2-5 per cent in constant currency (cc) for the financial year 2024 (FY24), below the pre-Covid levels of 5-8 per cent for FY17-20. The weak projection, thus, signals that slower demand is likely to persist this year, and any recovery is unlikely in the near-to-medium term, experts note.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
Since its results for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) earlier this month, the stock of auto component major Bharat Forge is up nearly 15 per cent and hit its all-time high in the process. The recent gains have extended the returns over the last three months to over 34 per cent. After a strong Q1 performance which beat expectations, brokerages had revised their earnings estimates upwards to factor in the improved outlook.
In August, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das held a meeting with chief executive officers/ managing directors (CEOs/ MDs) of large non-banking financial corporations (NBFCs). The discussions included diversifying borrowing sources for NBFCs and housing finance companies (HFCs) to contain increasing reliance on bank borrowing, risks associated with high credit growth in retail segment in unsecured loans, prioritising IT upgrades and cyber-security, improving provisioning, monitoring of stressed exposures and slippages, ensuring robust liquidity and asset-liability management, ensuring transparency in pricing, creating robust grievance redress mechanisms.
An increased brand fee paid by India-listed Vedanta, apart from record dividend, has helped Vedanta Resources (VRL) - the London-based holding company of Vedanta Group - to repay part of its debt. Vedanta paid a brand fee of Rs 2,632 crore ($325 million) for 2022-23 (FY23), according to Nomura report. This was after the Anil Agarwal-owned holding company raised the brand fee to 2 per cent of the turnover for its Indian businesses in 2021.
Trade generic drugs (medicines that are sold directly through distributors) are fast becoming a key segment for domestic pharma firms as volume growth slows in the overall market. Big companies like Cipla and Alkem have a significant presence in the segment but recently, players like Torrent Pharmaceuticals and Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) have also entered this market. What is driving big pharma's focus on trade generics? The volume growth in the Indian Pharma Market (IPM) has come down from 5.6 per cent in FY16 to 0.1 per cent in FY23.
Against an offer of 4.55 crore shares of Adani Enterprises Ltd, only 4.7 lakh were subscribed, according to information available from the BSE. Adani Enterprises fell almost 20 per cent to below the offer price of its secondary sale as all the seven listed companies of the conglomerate took a beating in the aftermath of Hindenberg Reserach alleged that the group was "engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades".
Except for September quarter, which had net inflows of $196 million, all other quarters had outflows.
Input shortages and low inventories, according to Nomura, will likely lead to production cuts and delayed shipments in the September 2021 quarter.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will keep on the path of fiscal consolidation and opt for narrowing the FY24 fiscal deficit to as low as 5.8 per cent in the upcoming Budget, analysts said on Tuesday. The government may go for a fiscal deficit number which will be far lower than the 6.4 per cent of GDP budgeted for FY23, they said, pegging the Budget figure for the next fiscal in the range of 5.8 - 6 per cent. Given the fact that this will be the last full Budget of the present government, there may be a temptation to make it into an expansionist one.
Nomura Group Study found that in 2019, out of the fifty-six companies which shifted their production out of China, only three of these invested in India; while 26 went to Vietnam, 11 to Taiwan, and 08 to Thailand. In April 2020, Nikkei noted that out of the 1,000 firms which were planning to leave China and invest in Asian countries, only 300 of them were seriously thinking of investing in India.
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
Brokerage firm Nomura said inflation levels in India are close to post global financial crisis lows, and also retained its positive stance on Sensex.
Following a strong performance in the 2022-23 January-March quarter, publicly listed paint industry giants displayed a mixed performance in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. While Berger Paints India outperformed its peers and reported results in line with expectations, market leader Asian Paints and Kansai Nerolac Paints fell slightly short of expectations.
Many giving double-digit returns, with India up less than one per cent; even so, it has done much better than other emerging markets.
Global oil prices have slumped and India has access to larger amounts of discounted Russian crude oil, yet refiners are not passing on their savings to consumers
India's largest two-wheeler maker by volume - Hero MotoCorp (Hero) - posted a better-than-expected operating performance in the January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter of 2022-23 (FY23). Riding on higher average selling prices which were up 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and volume growth of 7 per cent, the company registered a 12 per cent growth in revenue to Rs 8,306 crore. The company sold 127,000 units in the quarter, largely driven by domestic sales which were up 11.6 per cent, while exports saw a sharp fall of 57 per cent over the year-ago quarter.
India's electric mobility goal, which has so far been riding on two wheels, is all set to graduate to four wheels. At least, the journey has begun. Hyundai Motor India said it would invest Rs 4,000 crore till 2028 to launch half-a-dozen electric vehicles (EVs) in India. It would eventually straddle premium and mass segments. The first of these - the electrified version of an internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered model - will go on sale as early as next year.
Though the number of Japanese foreign institutional investors in India is still negligible, it's significant that 8 of the 11 registered with Sebi entered in the past year and a half
Analysts expect firms to shift focus to online platforms to boost sales in these Covid-19-impacted times.
In spite of a severe second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and a widespread disruption in public life therefore, India's fast-moving consumer goods (FMGC) sector seems to have emerged as one of the most resilient segments of the economy. The early numbers and estimates for the April-June quarter indicate a steady recovery in FMCG players' business, which is now set to exceed the pre-pandemic level. Amid nationwide lockdowns because of the first Covid wave, FMCG revenues had been severely affected in mid-2020.
